Volume 50, No. 4 (December 2006)

Nicholas Dujmovic is a CIA historian and a veteran intelligence analyst. He is the compiler and editor of Literary Spy, a book of quotations about intelligence. He is a member of the Studies in Intelligence Editorial Board.

Daniel Kahneman is Eugene Higgins Professor of Psychology and Professor of Public Affairs, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University. Professor Kahneman has studied judgment and decision making under uncertainty for nearly 40 years. For this work he won the Nobel Prize in Economic Science in 2002. His current research is focused on the measurement of well-being.

Zvi Lanir is the founder and president of the PRAXIS Institute (www.Praxis.co.il), which researches, develops, and applies methods and tools for early warning systems. Dr. Lanir is currently working on a book on the “Second War in Lebanon” (2006) and its “lessons for strategic and intelligence paradigms.”

Manuel Antonio Orellana Jr. is a lieutenant in the United States Navy. He prepared his contribution while he was assigned to the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California. He has an advanced degree in Special Operations in Low Intensity Conflicts and National Security Affairs.

Hayden B. Peake is the curator of the CIA Historical Intelligence Collection. He served in the Directorate of Science and Technology and the Directorate of Operations. He is a frequent contributor to this and other intelligence journals.

Robert Sinclair was a CIA intelligence analyst for 37 years. He is now a consultant on analytic issues.

Michael J. Sulick was associate deputy director of operations in CIA before he retired in 2004. He was a member of the Studies in Intelligence Editorial Board.

Puong Fei Yeh prepared his article while he earned his M.A. in International Relations (2006) at Yale University. He holds a B.A. in Economics from Wesleyan University. He currently works with a consulting firm in Northern Virginia.