Dear Molly,
Is it true that the CIA has the SAT? What kind of scores do you need to get a spy job? Is it like the same test everyone else takes?
~ Test Taker Titan
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Dear Test Taker Titan,
As someone who did terribly at standardized tests in high school, I’m relieved to say it’s impossible to get the answer to your question wrong, because it’s both yes and no! No, you do not need any kind of standardized test scores to work at CIA, thank goodness! But yes, we do have our own SATs. Except in this case, SAT stands for Structured Analytic Techniques, which are important tools for the work of the Directorate of Analysis (DA).
We all, as humans, have cognitive biases, and it’s essential to the DA’s mission that our analysts overcome these shortcomings when thinking about international issues. Every day, DA analysts analyze thousands of pieces of information coming in from across the globe and make sense of it for America’s leaders and policymakers, including the President. It can be a lot. Sometimes, analysts have to figure out problems with little information, which poses its own challenges. These are some of the reasons why they use Structured Analytic Techniques.
SATs can be useful in many other situations, too. Whenever I’m stuck on a tricky problem and need help seeing clearly, I usually turn to my friends in the DA for advice, and I’ve found that these same SAT techniques, with a few modifications, can often be applied to my own personal quandaries.
I thought it would be fun to teach you a few SATs used by our top analysts and show you ways they might be useful in situations outside the national security realm. You can even combine several for a more robust analysis of your own unique dilemma or situation.
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Key Assumptions Check
What It Is: A Key Assumptions Check is an exercise where you list and challenge the most important assumptions underlying an analytic judgment.
CIA Use: Analysts identify key assumptions—these are theories that must be true for an analytic conclusion to also be true—to test the strength of their judgments. Analysts also check assumptions when a particular judgment is long-standing or relies on a dwindling or aging pool of information.
How You Can Use It: First, state your judgment. Let’s say you’ve planted a tree and, based on your tree research, you judge it’s going to grow 28 inches by next year, which would guarantee a blue ribbon in the local tree-growing contest. Next, make a list of all the things that have to be true for what you believe is going to happen to come about. Does it have to rain a certain amount? How about those bugs in your area that love to munch on this kind of tree? Examine and challenge each of your assumptions to see if they are likely to be correct and why or why not. How did your judgment hold up?
Devil’s Advocacy
What It Is: Devil’s Advocacy is an approach where you challenge a single, strongly held view or consensus by building the best possible case for an alternative explanation.
CIA Use: Analysts will often use this SAT in cases where “everybody knows that” something is true, to the point that no one even thinks of questioning the idea. But what might “everybody” be missing? What has the potential to turn things upside down or even slightly sideways?
How You Can Use It: Have you ever heard the term “playing devil’s advocate?” It’s basically that. This technique could be helpful when you’re looking at your long-term worldviews or beliefs that influence a current situation or problem. Is there an alternative, or even opposite, possibility you haven’t considered because it goes against an underlying assumption—a strongly held belief—you already have? Try first performing a Key Assumptions Check and then challenging each assumption with Devil’s Advocacy. To go with the tree example above, let’s say one of your key assumptions is that the tree won’t grow as high in a drought. In Devil’s Advocacy, you would build a case for why the tree would grow just as much or more without the rainfall.
Signposts and Indicators
What It Is: Signposts and Indicators is a technique where you create a list of observable events and you periodically review the list to track whether they’ve happened, spot emerging trends, and warn when a situation is changing.
CIA Use: Analysts use this technique both alone and with others to help determine which scenario out of several possibilities is emerging. Signposts also help “depersonalize” an argument by shifting attention to a set of objective criteria from a person’s or group’s point of view.
How You Can Use It: When you’re concerned about a future event that you’re not sure will happen, conflicting possible futures, or even retroactively when you’re trying to decide whether something is already happening, try this technique. What signs or indicators would you expect to see if the event—we can use our shrinking tree example—is starting to or more likely to come true? You could monitor rainfall amounts or tree growth. To cover your bases, create a list of signs and indicators (perfect weather for six months in a row?) that indicate the event is less likely to occur. Put your lists up on the wall and check them regularly. What do you see?
Red Team Analysis
What It Is: A Red Team Analysis is a technique for predicting the behavior of another individual or group by trying to replicate how that person or group thinks by putting yourself “in their shoes.”
CIA Use: This is usually a team exercise that CIA analysts use when trying to predict the behavior of a specific person who has the authority to make decisions, like a foreign leader.
How You Can Use It: In many ways, this is an exercise in empathy. By putting yourself in someone else’s shoes, you can better understand how they think and why they do what they do. Especially if you find their actions baffling and very different from how you would do things. Like the judge for that tree contest. I mean, what was he thinking last year when he gave the blue ribbon to a fake plant?
High Impact/Low Probability Analysis
What It Is: A High Impact/Low Probability Analysis is used to develop a case for an event that seems highly unlikely to happen, but if it did, would have major consequences.
CIA Use: DA officers often use this type of analysis to sensitize their colleagues and policymakers to the potential impact of seemingly low probability events, sometimes called “wild cards,” that would have major consequences for U.S. interests if they happened. Analysts create a mental simulation of the unlikely event to help others imagine early on how it could come to be and how best to respond if it does.
How You Can Use It: This is a good exercise for those of us who like to be prepared. By looking at unlikely events that could occur in your life, even if highly unlikely, you can better prepare for the possibility. You can use this in combination with a Signposts and Indicators exercise, to try and get advance warning that a previously unlikely event is becoming more likely to occur. What if a crazy storm rolls in and lightning strikes, cracking your prize-winning tree in half?
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I hope these techniques sparked some creative ideas on ways to think through your next problem or tricky situation. Best of all, you won’t need a number 2 pencil to implement them! <wink>
~ Molly
#AskMollyHale